Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 2.035812e-01 0.242329 0.283847 0.331367 0.383981 0.440191 0.504521
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 1.521385e-01 0.204010 0.263799 0.336698 0.422093 0.517928 0.632575
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 1.095301e-01 0.166507 0.237215 0.328760 0.441565 0.573611 0.737429
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 8.295765e-02 0.142856 0.222619 0.331601 0.471825 0.641731 0.858683
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 6.025227e-02 0.119129 0.203627 0.325471 0.488848 0.693209 0.960974
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 4.144551e-02 0.096186 0.181523 0.311651 0.493423 0.727824 1.042424
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 3.204577e-02 0.085716 0.175432 0.318452 0.524571 0.796429 1.167712
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.237438e-02 0.071629 0.161158 0.311259 0.535081 0.837452 1.257972
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.840522e-02 0.067520 0.162346 0.326892 0.577839 0.922140 1.406528
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.336946e-02 0.059075 0.154484 0.327224 0.597864 0.975993 1.515122
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.631580e-03 0.052024 0.147798 0.328406 0.618554 1.030703 1.625423
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 7.431463e-03 0.048120 0.146410 0.337960 0.651798 1.103328 1.760855
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 5.706908e-03 0.044869 0.146059 0.349602 0.689316 1.183891 1.910164
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.290029e-03 0.041736 0.145401 0.360510 0.725961 1.263997 2.060330
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.566518e-03 0.035462 0.136438 0.355444 0.736777 1.306830 2.159543
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.667932e-03 0.031937 0.133152 0.360433 0.763673 1.373420 2.292725
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.458015e-04 0.026957 0.124989 0.355148 0.773168 1.414223 2.390031
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.843957e-04 0.021278 0.113179 0.341195 0.767114 1.431184 2.453339
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.368478e-04 0.019484 0.112069 0.348862 0.797856 1.504019 2.597278
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.303798e-05 0.015907 0.104241 0.341474 0.802001 1.536110 2.682773
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.507080e-06 0.015655 0.107475 0.358272 0.849017 1.634829 2.865877
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 9.290243e-08 0.013558 0.103531 0.358726 0.866869 1.688537 2.983997
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 NaN 0.011792 0.100151 0.360045 0.886115 1.744550 3.105972